Jiaming Wei,* Kexin Yang,* Jiarui Xue, MingYi Luo, Wei Peng, Xunlu Yin, Wu Sun, Chunyu Gao, Guangfei Teng, He Yin, Minshan Feng, Luguang Li, Kai Sun, Wei Zhang

Department of SpineII, Wangjing Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, 100102, People’s Republic of China

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Correspondence: Xunlu Yin, Email yin_xun_lu@163.com Kexin Yang, Email 13611261137@163.com

Purpose: This study, aimed to report the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability caused by neck pain in the general population of China from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life Years (DALYs) from 2022 to 2042.
Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The annual percentage change (APC) and average APC between 1990 and 2021 were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates between 2022 and 2042.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of neck pain in China showed a clear upward trend, with age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), and DALYs rates being significantly higher in females than in males. Especially in terms of DALYs, Aging has had the largest impact, contributing 61.88% of the increase, while population growth has accounted for 32.43%. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence and prevalence of neck pain in China increased gradually from 2000 to 2021. Data from 2021 showed that individuals aged 45– 59 years are the most affected by neck pain, regardless of sex. The prediction results of the ARIMA model indicate that China’s ASIR and ASPR for neck pain are projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years.
Conclusion: Neck pain is a serious public health problem in the general Chinese population. This may be related to changes in people’s lifestyles and work patterns due to improvements in societal well-being and technology. Raising awareness of the risk factors for neck pain in the general population could help reduce the future burden of neck disorders, and neck pain should be a priority for future research on prevention and therapy.

Keywords: neck pain, joinpoint regression analysis, ARIMA models, Burden of disease, prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years